Unit 9 29 Stochastic Answer 2 knowitvideos English (auto-generated) English

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and the answer is 48.6 and obviously is

And the answer is 48.6.

not quite as trivial as the calculation

And obviously, it's not quite as trivial as the calculation before

before because there's two competing

because there's 2 competing actions.

action you could try to go north which

We can try to go north, which gives us the 77

gives us the 77 but risk the chance of falling into the minus 100 or we can go

but risks the chance of falling into the -100.

west as before which gives us a much

Or we can go west, as before, which gives us a much smaller chance

smaller chance to reeve 77 but of all

to reach 77, but avoids the -100.

its demands on hundred says to both and

Let's do both and see which one is better.

see which one's better if we go north we have a 0.8 chance of reaching 77 there

If we go north, we have a 0.8 chance of reaching 77.

is no 10% chance of paying minus 100 and

There's now a 10% chance of paying -100

a 10% chance of staying in the same

and a 10% chance of staying in the same location,

location which at this point has still value zero we subtract our costs of

which at this point is still a value of 0.

three and we get sixty one point six

We subtract our costs of 3, and we get 61.6

minus ten minus three equals forty eight six

- 10 - 3 = 48.6.

let's check the West actual value we

Let's check the west action value.

reach the 77 only probability zero point

We reach the 77 with probability 0.1

one with point a chance we stay in the

with 0.8 chance we stay in the same cell,

same cell which has the value of 0 and

which has the value of 0,

with point one chance we end up down

and with 0.1 chance, we end up down here,

here which also has a value of zero we

which also has a value of 0.

subtract our cost of minus three and it

We subtract our costs of -3,

gives us seven point seven minus three equals four point seven so at this point

and that gives us 7.7 - 3 = 4.7.

going west is vastly inferior to going

At this point, going west is vastly inferior

north and the reason is we are very

to going north, and the reason is we already propagated

propagated a great value of 77 to the

a great value of 77 for this cell over here,

cell over here whereas this one is still set to zero so we will set it to 48.6

whereas this one is still set to 0. So, we will set it to 48.6.

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