Unit 11 05.mp4 Markov Chain Question 1.mp4 knowitvideos English Russian

Unit 11 05.mp4 Markov Chain Question 1.mp4YouTube↗ IA↗(long shot)
Film & Animation 10.1K views 8 likes 1 dislikes 11 Nov 2011

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[Thrun] So let's begin by taking the hidden out of the Markov model

Давайте начнем с того, что уберем слово "скрытая" из определения марковской модели,

and study Markov chains.

и обратимся к цепям Маркова.

We're going to use an example for which I will quiz you.

Давайте рассмотрим пример, на который я потом задам вам вопрос.

Suppose there are 2 types of weather--rainy, which we call R,

Допустим у нас есть два типа погоды - дождливая (обозначим ее R),

and sunny, which we call S--

и солнечная (обозначим ее S) -

and suppose we have the following state transition diagram.

и теперь допустим у нас есть следующая диаграмма переходов.

If it's rainy, it stays rainy with a 0.6 chance while with 0.4 it becomes sunny.

Если погода дождливая, то вероятность того, что она останется дождливой равна 0.6, и соответственно вероятность того, что погода поменяется на солнечную равна 0.4.

Sunny remains sunny with 0.8 chance but moves to rainy with 0.2 chance.

Солнечная же погода может оставаться солнечной с вероятностью 0.8, а поменяться на дождливую с вероятностью 0.2.

This is obviously a temporal sequence so the weather at time 1 will be called R1 or S1,

Очевидно, что эта последовательность носит временной характер, т.е. погоду во время 1 мы можем обозначить, как R1 или S1,

at time 2, R2 or S2.

во время 2 - R2 или S2.

Suppose in the beginning we happen to know it is rainy,

Допустим нам известно, что вначале было дождливо,

which means R times 0 when we begin.

наше начало мы обозначим как R во время 0.

We have the probability of rain equals 1 and the probably of sun, S times 0 equals 0.

Вероятность дождя в этом случае равна 1, а вероятность солнечной погоды, S во время 0, равна 0.

I'd like to know from you what's the probability of rain on day 1, the same for day 2,

Скажите мне пожалуйста, какова вероятность дождливой погоды в день 1, в день 2,

and the same for day 3.

и в день 3.

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