Cancer Test - Artificial Intelligence for RoboticsYouTube↗  IA↗(long shot)
Education  23.3K views 11 likes 0 dislikes   19 Feb 2012
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Let me ask you Bayes Rule in the context of a completely different example
Adesso ti chiedo la Regola di Bayes nel contesto di un esempio completamente diverso
to see if you understand how to apply Bayes Rule.
per vedere se hai capito come applicare la Regola di Bayes.
This time it's about cancer testing.
Questa volta si tratta di un test sul cancro.
It is an example that is commonly studied in statistics classes.
E' un esempio comunemente studiato nei corsi di statistica.
Suppose there exists a certain type of cancer,
Supponi che esista un certo tipo di cancro,
but the cancer is rare--only 1 in a 1000 people has the cancer--
ma questo cancro è molto raro, solo una persona su mille lo ha
where as 999 in 1000 people don't have it,
mentre 999 persone su 1000 non lo hanno,
illustrated by the probability of cancer and the probability of not cancer.
mostrato dalla probabilità di Cancro e dalla probabilità di non-Cancro.
Suppose we have a test, and the test can come out positive or negative.
Immagina di avere un test, e il test puà risultare positivo o negativo.
The probability that the test triggers positive if you have cancer is 0.8,
La probabilità che il test risulti positivo se ho il cancro è 0.8
and the probability that the test comes out positive given that I'm cancer free is only 0.1.
e la probabilità che il test risulti positivo se non ho il cancro è solo 0.1
Clearly the test has a strong correlation to whether I have cancer.
Ovviamente il test ha una forte correlazione al fatto che io abbia il cancro o no.
Here's a really difficult question.
Questa è una domanda difficile:
Can you compute for me the probability of cancer given that I just received a positive test.
sai calcolare la probabilità di Cancro, dato un risultato positivo del test?
Let me emphasize this is not an easy question, but you should be able,
Lasciami rimarcare che questa domanda non è facile, ma dovresti essere in grado,
based on what I've taught you, to calculate this result.
basato su ciò che ti ho insegnato, di calcolare questo risultato.
Think of the cancer/non cancer as the robot position
Pensa a Cancro/nonCancro come alla posizione del robot
and think of the positive as whether the colored door observed is the correct one.
e pensa al risultato positivo come a sapere se il colore osservato è quello giusto.
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