Unit 3 8a Two Test Cancer ExampleYouTube↗  IA↗(long shot)
Howto & Style  22.7K views 7 likes 0 dislikes   08 Oct 2011
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Pokazałem Wam to wszystko, żebyście mogli to teraz zastosować
Bunların hepsini size vermemin nedeni, biraz daha karmaşık karmaşık
do nieco bardziej skomplikowanego przypadku, czyli do przykładu dwóch testów na raka
problem olan 2-test kanser örneğine uygulamanızı istememdir.
W tym przykładzie znowu zmienną nieobserwowalną jest rak,
Bu örnekte, gene gözlemlenemeyen kanser C olabiliriz.
teraz jednak przeprowadzamy dwa testy, 1 i 2.
Ama şimdi 2 test yürütüyoruz, test 1 ve test 2.
Jak wcześniej prawdopodobieństwo a priori bycia chorym na raka to 0.01
Daha önce olduğu gibi kanserin önsel (prior) olasılığı 0.01.
Prawdopodobieństwo wyniku pozytywnego dla dowolnego testu to 0.9
Her iki test içinde pozitif sonuç alma olasılığı 0.9.
Prawdopodobieństwo wyniku negatywnego, pod warunkiem bycia zdrowym to 0.8
Kanser değilken negatif bir sonuç alma olasılığımızda 0.8.
Stąd wyliczamy pozostałe prawdopodobieństwa,
Bütün bu verileri kullanarak tüm diğer olasılıkları hesaplayabilmemiz lazım,
które wypiszemy tutaj obok.
ve hepsini hemen buraya yazacağız.
Popatrzcie przez chwilę, czy wszystko się zgadza.
Şimdi bir dakikanızı ayırın ve bu sonuçları doğrulayın.
Załóżmy teraz, że oba testy dają wynik pozytywny.
Şimdi diyelimki, her iki test sonucuda pozitif geldi.
czyli T1 = + i T2 = +
T1=+ ve T2=+.
Jakie jest prawdopodobieństwo bycia chorym na raka, teraz zapisane skrótowo
Şimdi kanserin olasılığı nedir, kısaca yazarsak,
C pod warunkiem ++?
++ verilmişken C'nin olasılığı.
Odpowiedzcie na to nietrywialne pytanie.
Bana bunun cevabını vermenizi istiyorum ve bu küçümsenmeyecek bir soru.
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