Unit 4, 2a AnswerYouTube↗  IA↗(long shot)
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We get the answer by reading numbers off the conditional probability tables,
Obtemos a resposta tirando os números das tabelas de probabilidade condicional,
so probability of B being positive is 0.001.
então a probabilidade de B ser positiva é 0.001.
Of E being positive, because we're dealing with the positive case now
A probabilidade de E ser positiva, já que estamos lidando com o caso positivo
for the variable E, is 0.002.
dessa variável, é 0.002.
The probability of A being positive, because we're dealing with that case,
A probabilidade de A ser positiva, porque também estamos lidando com esse caso,
given that B is positive and the case for an E is positive,
dado B positiva, e E também positiva,
that we can read off here as 0.95.
pode ser retirada daqui: 0.95.
The probability that J is positive given that A is positive is 0.9.
A probabilidade de J ser positivo dado A é positivo é 0.9.
And finally, the probability that M is positive given that A is positive
Finalmente, a probabilidade de M ser positivo dado que A é positivo
we read off here as 0.7.
tem o valor de 0.7.
We multiple all those together, it's going to be a small number
Multiplicando tudo isso, chegamos a um número pequeno
because we've got the .001 and the .002 here.
por causa destes .001 e .002 aqui.
Can't quite fit it in the box, but it works out to .000001197.
Não cabe muito bem nessa caixa, mas é um valor de 0.000001197
That seems like a really small number, but remember,
Isso parece um número bem pequeno, mas lembre-se,
we have to normalize by the P(+j,+m) term,
temos que normalizar pelo termo P(+j, +m),
and this is only 1 of the 4 possibilities.
e isso é apenas 1 das 4 possibilidades.
We have to enumerate over all 4 possibilities for E and A,
Temos que enumerar sobre todas as 4 possibilidade de E a A,
and in the end, it works out that the probability of the burglar alarm being true
e no final, chegamos ao resultado de que a probabilidade do alarme ter tocado devido a um roubo
given that John and Mary calls, is 0.284.
dado que John e Mary telefonaram é 0.284.
And we get that number because intuitively,
Esse número está certo, pois intuitivamente,
it seems that the alarm is fairly reliable.
o alarme parece ser bem confiável,
John and Mary calling are very reliable,
e John e Mary também são confiáveis,
but the prior probability of burglary is low.
mas a probabilidade de haver um roubo é baixa.
And those 2 terms combine together to give us the 0.284 value
Esses 2 termos são combinados e nos dão o valor de 0.284
when we sum up each of the 4 terms of these products.
após somarmos cada um dos 4 termos desses produtos.
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