How Long Can We Live?YouTube↗  IA↗(long shot)
Science & Technology  1.4M views 22.2K likes 575 dislikes   29 May 2018
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This video was sponsored by Squarespace.
نُفذ هذا الفيديو برعاية Squarespace
Hi, this is Emily from MinuteEarth.
مرحبًا ، أنا إميلي من MinuteEarth
Not to sound super morbid, but with each passing second of life, the cells in our bodies accrue
لا أريد أن أبدو كمهووسة عظيمة ، ولكن مع مرور كل ثانية من الحياة ، يتراكم الخلايا في أجسادنا
a little more damage, which is at least partly why, as people get older, their odds of dying
بضرر أكبر بقليل ، والذي هو على الأقل جزئيا لماذا ، مع تقدم الناس في السن ، احتمالات زيادة الموت: اليوم
increase: today, a 40 year-old has a .3% chance of dying in the next year, while a 60-year
عمر 40 سنة لديه فرصة 0.3٪ للموت في السنة القادمة ، في حين أن عمر 60 عاماً
old has a 1% chance of dying in the next year, an 80 year old has a 5 percent chance, and
لديه فرصة 1 ٪ من الموت في العام المقبل ، عمر 80 عاماً لديه فرصة بنسبة 5 ٪
a 100-year-old has a 50% chance.
وعمر 100 عام لديه فرصة 50 ٪
But around that age, there's some evidence that the odds of dying level off.
ولكن في هذا العمر ، هناك بعض الأدلة على أن احتمالات الموت في المستوى المنخفض
So, what would make the mortality curve flatten out like that?
إذن ، ما الذي يجعل منحنى الوفيات يتسطح هكذا من هذا القبيل؟
Well, ne theory is that it has to do with natural selection and bad jeans – the other
حسناً ، أحدى النظريات لها علاقة بالانتقاء الطبيعي والجينات السيئة - النوع الآخر
kind. Take a hypothetical gene mutation that proves fatal during childhood.
ثبت أن تحور جينات افتراضية تُلحق هلاكاً فادحاً أثناء مرحلة الطفولة
Because it kills its host before they get old enough to reproduce, it never gets passed
لانه يقتل مضيفه قبل ان يصل الى سن الانجاب ، لا يتم تمريره أبدًا
on – natural selection weeds it out.
الانتقاء الطبيعي يُزيله
On the other hand, a nasty mutation that tends to kill people after they grow up and reproduce
من ناحية أخرى ، يمكن أن تنتقل طفرة سيئة تميل إلى قتل الناس بعد نموها وتكاثُرها
can get passed on, but here’s where things get complicated, because human kids depend
ولكن هنا تتعقد الأمور ، لأن أطفال البشر يعتمدون
on their parents for survival.
على والديهم من أجل البقاء
So a bad gene that tends to kill relatively young adults is also likely to indirectly
لذلك من المرجح أيضًا أن يكون الجين السيئ الذي يميل إلى قتل البالغين من الشباب نسبياً هو أمر غير مباشر
kill their young kids, and thus be weeded from the gene pool, too.
وبالتالي يتم التخلص من التجمع الجيني أيضًا
But a bad gene that kills slightly older adults has a lower chance of indirectly killing their
لكن الجين السيئ الذي يقتل البالغين الأكبر سناً جُزئياً لديه فرصة أقل في قتل الأكبر سنا بشكل غير مباشر
slightly older, more self-sufficient kids, and thus has a lower chance of getting weeded
المزيد من الأطفال المكتفين ذاتياً ، وبالتالي لديها فرصة أقل في التخلص
out of the gene pool, and a gene that kills even older adults has an even lower chance
من التجمع الجيني ، والجين الذي يقتل حتى كبار السن لديه فرصة أقل
of also killing their kids.
لقتل أطفالهم
In short, natural selection’s ability to eliminate harmful genes gets lower and lower
بإختصار ، إن قدرة الانتقاء الطبيعي على القضاء على الجينات الضارة تنخفض مع انخفاض
as the age at which those genes strike gets higher and higher.
العمر الذي تصبح فيه تلك الجينات أعلى وأعلى
And this could explain the weird death rate curve.
يُمكن هذا أن يفسر منحنى معدل الوفيات الغريب
Like, think of natural selection as a magical force field that protects people from the
مثل ، التفكر في الانتقاء الطبيعي كمجال قوة سحرية يحمي الناس
grim reaper, but it gets weaker as people get older, so their odds of dying go up.
من المفاجئة القاتمة ، لكنها تصبح أضعف مع تقدم الناس في السن ، بالتالي فإن احتمالات موتهم ترتفع
Eventually, the force field wears off entirely, so while people's chances of dying at that
في نهاية المطاف ، ميدان القوة تتلاشى تماماً ، في حين أن فرص الناس في الموت
age are really high, they don’t go up any further because there’s no protection left
في هذا العمر مرتفعة للغاية ، لا يرتفعون أكثر من ذلك لأنه لا توجد حماية متبقية
to lose. And if the death rate really does level out - say, somewhere around 50 percent once we
وإذا كان معدل الوفيات بالفعل خارج مستوى القول ، في مكان ما حوالي 50 في المئة
hit 100 years of age - how long humans can ultimately live is just a numbers game: right
عندما نصل إلى 100 سنة - كم من الوقت يمكن للإنسان أن يعيش في نهاية المطاف هو مجرد لعبة أرقام: في الوقت الحالي
now, there are about half a million hundred-year-olds on Earth.
هناك حوالي نصف مليون شخص يبلغ أعمارهم مئة سنة من العمر على الأرض
If half of them die each year, only about 15 thousand will make it to 105, only about
إذا توفي نصفهم كل عام ، فقط حوالي 15 ألف سوف يصل إلى 105
500 will make it to 110,and odds are none of the current centenarians will beat the
فقط حوالي 500 منهم سيصل إلى 110 ، والفرص لن تكون لأيًّا من المعمرين الحاليين
old-age record of 122 . But if we count all 7.7 billion people living on the planet today,
لكي يهزموا الرقم القياسي القديم البالغ 122. ولكن إذا حسبنا جميع 7.7 مليار شخص يعيشون على هذا الكوكب اليوم
odds are that 15 people will beat that record – and one lucky human will live to the ripe
هناك إحتمالات بأن 15 شخصًا سيتغلبون على هذا الرقم القياسي - وسيعيش شخص مُعمر واحد محظوظ
old age of 127. This video was sponsored by Squarespace.
حتى سن 127 سنة
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All you have to do is head over to Squarespace.com/MINUTEEARTH for a free trial and when you’re ready to launch, use the offer code MinuteEarth to save 10% off your first purchase of a website or domain. Think it.
Dream it. Make it. With Squarespace.
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