Unit 11 12.mp4 Finding Transition Probabilities.mp4 knowitvideos Japanese English

Unit 11 12.mp4 Finding Transition Probabilities.mp4YouTube↗ IA↗(long shot)
Film & Animation 18.9K views 36 likes 13 dislikes 11 Nov 2011

knowitvideos 11.8K subscribers N/A YouTube↗

Click to Play Video

実際のデータからもマルコフ連鎖の遷移確率を求めることができます

[Thrun] You can also learn the transition probabilities of a Markov chain like this from actual data.

例えば窓の外を眺めていたら雨の翌日は晴れでその次は雨だったとします

Suppose you look out of the window and see sequences of rainy days followed by sunny days followed by rainy days

遷移確率はそれぞれいくつになるでしょうか

and you wonder what numbers to put here, here, here, and here.

雨、晴れ、晴れ、晴れ、雨、晴れ、雨という一連の状態を観測したとします

Let me assume you see a sequence rain, sun, sun, sun, rain, sun, and rain.

全部で7日間の天気です

These are, in total, 7 different days,

初日における初期状態の分布を含むすべての確率を最尤推定法によって推測してみましょう

and we wish to estimate all those probabilities over here, including the initial distribution for the first day using maximum likelihood.

ラプラススムージングを思い出すかもしれませんが

You might remember all this work with Laplace smoothing,

単に最も尤度の高いものだけを選びます

but for now we keep it simple, just maximum likelihood.

初日は雨なので0日目の最尤推定値は1です

We find for day 0 we had rain, and maximum likelihood would just say the probability for day 0 is 1.

これが最も可能性の高い推定値です

That's the most likely estimate.

遷移確率を求めるために雨から他の状態へと遷移している部分を探しますここに2つあります

Then for the transition probability we find we transition from rain to something else twice here.

晴れへ遷移する時も雨のままの時もありますが

We sometimes transition to sun and sometimes stay in rain.

ここでは2つとも雨から晴れへ遷移しているので

In both of the transitions we go from rain to sun. There is no instance of rain to rain.

上の最尤推定値は1で下は0になります

So maximum likelihood gives us over here a 1 and this over here 0.

最後に晴れの状態ではどうなるかを考えてみましょう

And finally, we can also ask the question what happens from a sunny state.

晴れのあとは晴れたままか雨に遷移するかのどちらかです

We transition to a new sunny state or a rainy state,

この確率分布は簡単に求められます

and those distributions are easily calculated.

晴れの状態から遷移する部分は4カ所あります

We have 4 transitioning out of a sunny state to something else--

この4カ所です

this one, this one, this one, and this one.

この2カ所で晴れに2度遷移しています

Twice it goes to sunny over here and over here,

雨にはこの2カ所で2度遷移しています

twice it goes to rainy over here and over here,

従ってどちらの遷移確率も0．5となります

so therefore the probability for either transition is 0.5.

つまり遷移確率はここが0．5でここが0．5ですこの遷移確率は1でここは0です

So we have 0.5 over here, 0.5 over here, 1 over here, and 0 over here for the transition probabilities.

Similar videos:

Unit 11 09.mp4 Stationary Distribution.mp4

12.4K views 34 likes 2 dislikes 11 Nov 2011100% match

Unit 2, Topic 34, Note on Implementation

11.7K views 26 likes 1 dislikes 05 Oct 2011100% match

Comment voit l'éveillé - 5mn
Selim Aïssel
17K views 172 likes 5 dislikes 31 Jan 2013100% match

Unit 3 9c Answer

11.4K views 20 likes 9 dislikes 08 Oct 2011100% match

Shift Happens 6.0
ctumini
21.6K views 38 likes 8 dislikes 31 Jul 2012100% match

Unit 2, Topic 13, Uniform Cost Search

35.8K views 15 likes 28 dislikes 05 Oct 2011100% match

0 views 0 likes 0 dislikes 06 Jun 2026100% match

CEOS Chatter
Fernando Garcia
1.3K views 2 likes 1 dislikes 14 Mar 2012100% match

Gundarr (Ep 14): RainBro Down Show Down (subtitulado al castellano)
daniborr
29.9K views 122 likes 18 dislikes 08 Jul 2012100% match

Mr. Peabody & Sherman
TheCaptionedInternet
43.6K views 74 likes 9 dislikes 03 Mar 2014100% match

Instrucciones para llorar, de Julio Cortázar
Inés Andrés
5.9K views 10 likes 0 dislikes 10 Jan 2012100% match

Gundarr (Ep 19): Gundarr's Origin (subtitulado al castellano)
daniborr
14.3K views 53 likes 3 dislikes 15 Aug 2012100% match

Gundarr (Ep 3): Don't Have a Cow Man! (subtitulado al castellano)
daniborr
11.5K views 37 likes 7 dislikes 23 Jun 2012100% match

Unit 2, Topic 16, Uniform Cost Termination

37.5K views 21 likes 18 dislikes 05 Oct 2011100% match

Unit 2, Topic 22, More on Uniform Cost Search

14.8K views 29 likes 4 dislikes 05 Oct 2011100% match

Kingitus kõige nõrgemale
Tuuli Koitjärv
21.3K views 60 likes 4 dislikes 11 Jan 2014100% match

Unit 3 13 D-Separation

12.2K views 4 likes 1 dislikes 08 Oct 2011100% match

Thomas Jefferson's Warning about Banks
zilenthunderz
16.9K views 239 likes 4 dislikes 29 Sep 2012100% match

Unit 2, Topic 24, A-Star Second Question

30.8K views 36 likes 6 dislikes 05 Oct 2011100% match

Gundarr (Ep 28): Not in the Moody (subtitulado al castellano)
daniborr
19.5K views 91 likes 4 dislikes 25 Oct 2012100% match

Unit 8 4 Vacuum Cleaner Example

15.1K views 46 likes 4 dislikes 31 Oct 2011100% match

0 views 0 likes 0 dislikes 06 Jun 2026100% match

Recomendación kuentalibros - pizarra digital y niños con discapacidad auditiva
anitamc20
933 views 1 likes 0 dislikes 21 Dec 2012100% match

(ENG/CHI SUB) 140216 SM True Thailand Facebook EXO
Baby Xiumin
783 views 10 likes 0 dislikes 16 Feb 2014100% match

0 views 0 likes 0 dislikes 06 Jun 2026100% match

Akihiro Miwa & Hiroyuki Ehara on Women & Future (Eng sub)
2bfreeism
23.6K views 99 likes 7 dislikes 31 Aug 2013100% match

Winnie the Witch
Pilar Moure
111K views 286 likes 57 dislikes 31 May 2013100% match

Winnie the Witch 2
Pilar Moure
44.4K views 67 likes 20 dislikes 31 May 2013100% match

The Roman Soldier
Alejandro Vicent Sierra
195.4K views 1.5K likes 61 dislikes 31 May 2012100% match

Unit 3 3 Dependence

17.3K views 9 likes 13 dislikes 08 Oct 2011100% match

Settings Privacy About Contact Donate