Unit 3 3 DependenceYouTube↗  IA↗(long shot)
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[Thrun] So let me ask you about dependence.
[Thrun] Dovolte mi, abych se vás zeptat na závislé jevy.
Suppose we flip 2 coins.
Předpokládejme, že hodíme 2 mince.
Our first coin is a fair coin, and we're going to denote the outcome by X1.
První mince je poctivá, a výsledek označíme X1.
So the chance of X1 coming up heads is half.
Pravděpodobnost že X1 bude hlava je 0,5.
But now we branch into picking a coin based on the first outcome.
Ale další minci vybereme podle toho, jak dopadl první hod.
So if the first outcome was heads,
Takže pokud byl první hod hlava,
you pick a coin whose probability of coming up heads is going to be 0.9.
vyberete minci s pravděpodobností padnutí hlavy 0,9.
The way I word this is by conditional probability,
Zformuloval jsem to takto: při podmíněné pravděpodobnosti
probability of the second coin flip coming up heads
je pravděpodobnost, že duhý hod bude hlava,
provided that or given that X1, the first coin flip, was heads, is 0.9.
za předpokladu že X1, první hod, byl hlava, 0,9.
The first coin flip might also come up tails,
Při prvním hodu nám také může padnout orel,
in which case I pick a very different coin.
v takovém případě pak vyberu úplně jinou minci.
In this case I pick a coin which with 0.8 probability will once again give me tails,
V tom případě vyberu minci, na které mi s pravděpodobností 0.8 padne opět orel,
conditioned on the first coin flip coming up tails.
podmíněno je to tím že v prvním hodu padne orel.
So my question for you is,
Má otázka je:
what's the probability of the second coin flip coming up heads?
"Jaká je pravděpodobnost, že při druhém hodu padne hlava?"
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