Unit 3 11d QuestionYouTube↗  IA↗(long shot)
Howto & Style  5.8K views 3 likes 1 dislikes   08 Oct 2011
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[Thrun] And if you got this right, I will be deeply impressed
Wenn ihr diese Frage richtig habt,
about the fact you got this right.
bin ich schwer beeindruckt.
But the interesting thing now to observe is if we happen to know it's sunny
Interessant daran ist die Beobachtung, dass die Wahrscheinlichkeit
and I'm happy, then the probability of a raise is 14%, 0.014.
einer Lohnerhöhung 1,4% bzw. 0,014 beträgt, falls wir wissen, dass es sonnig ist und ich glücklich bin.
If I don't know about the weather and I'm happy,
Wenn ich nichts über das Wetter weiß und glücklich bin,
then the probability of a raise goes up to about 18.5%.
steigt die Wahrscheinlichkeit einer Gehaltserhöhung auf 1,8% bzw. 0,018.
Why is that?
Warum?
Well, it's the explaining away effect.
Nun, das ist genau der Effekt des "Wegerklärens".
My happiness is well explained by the fact that it's sunny.
Mein glücklicher Gemütszustand wird ausreichend durch den Sonnenschein erklärt.
So if someone observes me to be happy and asks the question,
Wenn mich also jemand beobachtet und feststellt, dass ich glücklich bin und sich die Frage stellt:
"Is this because Sebastian got a raise at work?"
"Ist das so, weil Sebastian eine Gehaltserhöhung erhalten hat?"
well, if you know it's sunny and this is a fairly good explanation for me being happy,
- dann stellt es für die Person eine zufriedenstellende Begründung dar, dass ich glücklich bin, falls die Person weiß, dass es sonnig ist.
you don't have to assume I got a raise.
Die Person muss nicht vermuten, dass ich eine Lohnerhöhung erhalten habe.
If you don't know about the weather, then obviously the chances are higher
Wenn die Person allerdings nichts über das Wetter weiß, sind natürlich die Chancen höher,
that the raise caused my happiness,
dass die Gehaltserhöhung Ursache meines glücklichen Gemütszustands ist,
and therefore this number goes up from 0.014 to 0.018.
wodurch die Zahl von 0,014 auf 0,018 ansteigt.
Let me ask you one final question in this next quiz,
Zum Abschluss habe ich noch eine letzte Frage für euch:
which is the probability of the raise given that I look happy and it's not sunny.
Wie hoch ist die Wahrscheinlichkeit einer Gehaltserhöhung, gegeben ich bin glücklich und es gibt keinen Sonnenschein?
This is the most extreme case for making a raise likely
Dieser Fall macht die Gehaltserhöhung am wahrscheinlichsten,
because I am a happy guy, and it's definitely not caused by the weather.
weil ich ein glücklicher Kerl bin und das definitiv nicht am Wetter liegt.
So it could be just random, or it could be caused by the raise.
Es könnte entweder zufällig oder durch eine Gehaltserhöhung so sein.
So please calculate this number for me and enter it into this box.
Berechnet also bitte die entsprechende Wahrscheinlichkeit und tragt sie in die Box ein.
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