Unit 3 3a AnswerYouTube↗  IA↗(long shot)
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[Thrun] The answer is 0.55.
[Thrun] Odgovor je 0,55.
The way to compute this is by the theorem of total probability.
Način da se ovo izračuna je teorem ukupne vjerojatnosti.
Probability of X2 equals heads.
Vjerojatnost X2 jednaka je glavi.
There's 2 ways I can get to this outcome.
Postoje 2 načina kako mogu doći do ovog ishoda.
One is via this path over here, and one is via this path over here.
Jedan od njih je preko ovog puta ovdje, a jedan je putem ovog puta ovdje.
Let me just write both of them down.
Dopustite mi samo zapisati oba.
So first of all, it could be the probability of X2 equals heads
Dakle, prije svega, to bi mogla biti vjerojatnost X2=glava
given that and I will assume X1 was head already.
s obzirom da ću pretpostaviti da je X1 već glava.
Now I have to add the complementary event.
Sada moram dodati komplementarn događaj.
Suppose X1 came up tails.
Pretpostavimo da X1 bilo pismo.
Then I can ask the question, what is the probability that X2 comes up heads regardless,
Sad mogu postaviti pitanje, kolika je vjerojatnost da X2 pada glava, bez obzira,
even though X1 was tails?
i ako je X1 pismo?
Plugging in the numbers gives us the following.
Priključivanje na brojeve nam daje sljedeće.
This one over here is 0.9 times a half.
Ovo ovdje je 0,9 puta pola.
The probability of tails is 0.8,
Vjerojatnost pisma je 0,8,
thereby my head probability becomes 1 minus 0.8, which is 0.2.
time vjerojatnost glave postaje 1 minus 0,8, što je 0,2.
Adding all of this together gives me 0.45 plus 0.1,
Zbrajanje svega zajedno mi daje 0,45 plus 0,1,
which is exactly 0.55.
što je točno 0,55.
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